Finding Prosperity in Uncertainty

For most of my life, uncertainty felt like an invitation. A problem waiting to be solved. Early in my career, that instinct was actively rewarded which made me want to sharpen my problem-solving skills even further.

What I didn't realize was that somewhere along the way, "solving for uncertainty" became a coping mechanism in my personal life.

When something was unresolved, I felt a pull toward resolution because not having a plan was uncomfortable. I'd make decisions not because I had clarity, but because I couldn't stand not having it.

My partner Adi and I are wired very differently. He can sit with the unknown in a way that used to baffle me. Where I felt urgency, he felt patience. Where I felt stuck, he felt rushed by me.

Over time, we figured out it wasn't a problem to fix. It was a difference to navigate. And that difference taught me something I wasn't expecting:

My desire for clarity wasn't always about making a good decision. Often, it was about escaping the discomfort of not having one.

There's a name for this in behavioral economics. In 1961, Daniel Ellsberg showed that when probabilities are unknown, people consistently choose a less favorable but more predictable option. It's called ambiguity aversion. We don't avoid uncertainty because it's dangerous. We avoid it because unclear situations, with no obvious right answer, feel unbearable to sit in.

I recognized myself in the research immediately.

In a moment when uncertainty feels omnipresent i.e. in markets, in politics, in everyday decisions — I've been sitting with this question. And I invite you to do the same:

When you're facing an unresolved decision, are you moving toward clarity or away from discomfort?

Next month: what this means for how we plan and why the goal might not be certainty at all.